Ag Commodity Research reports that recent estimates place the loss to Pakistan?s cotton crop at 16%., or 700,000t. Cotton represents the second largest domestic vegetable oil crush, next to softseed crush (primarily rapeseed). Estimates are that Pakistan?s domestic cotton oil production in 10/11 could decline by 120,000t. This would require an additional 300,000t of rapeseed crush to make up the loss in cottonseed oil production.

The ?story of the day? was that Russia would have to import wheat this year. Russia has large government stocks that they can use and if they were to import wheat it would certainly start by take supplies from Kazakhstan and Ukraine. There are also reports Ukraine government is buying domestic grains through a new trading company and this could easily be to hold stocks for themselves but perhaps more important to help Russia.

Canola futures came under pressure overnight on the general acceptance that the Canadian canola crop has been growing. A Reuter?s survey (prior to Statistics Canada August 20th. production estimate) placed the average guess today at 10.70mmt. It was just a month ago that most estimates were in the 9.50-10.50 range. The current extended forecast is not advertising any frost for the balance of August. If the crop can get into the 2nd week of September without a frost event, then production estimates could be adjusted higher to over 11mmt. There are reports of potential record yields in a large parts of Central Alberta as well as Southern Manitoba.