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Strategy of the Week
For information on other commodities please refer to our current issue of the
Newsletter.
10 Sep 2010
Demand and Russia support move higher Wheat put in another solid week, rising to 740USc/bu on solid export demand for US wheat and on Putin declaring there would be no changes to the Russian export ban until mid to late 2011.
Futures responded strongly and surged through the recent resistance levels around 730USc/bu as traders looked to square up positions heading into the North American Labor day long weekend and prior to this week?s USDA report.
Markets were softer after the long weekend, but given the profit taking in the macro sector, wheat futures held onto gains well.
The wheat market was thrown a little off balance mid-week by Russian President Medvedev suggesting the export ban would be reassessed once they know how much grain has been received from the current 09/10 harvest, somewhat contradictory to Prime Minister Putin?s words last week.
We can expect this uncertainty to continue to play a role in market volatility for the foreseeable future. Now all eyes will be on the USDA report due out on Friday before the US open.
Report keys will be how the USDA adjusts their Black Sea production figures and export allocations. Wheat traders will also watch the USDA?s corn yield closely.
Locally, basis remains firm in line with global premiums firming on increasing supply chain costs and a strong dependence on the US, Canada and Australia to meet the world?s import requirements. Asian demand remains strong and continues to support the bullish theme.
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